What the Borderplex commercial pipeline looks like heading into Q3 2026

We bid more commercial work in the first quarter of 2026 than in any first quarter on record. The shape of the pipeline going into the back half of the year tells us where the Borderplex commercial cycle is actually moving, separate from the headlines.

Here is what we are seeing at the field level. This is not a market report. It is what we see when we open the bid log.

Industrial and logistics

The strongest segment by deal count. Distribution centers along the I-10 corridor from Anthony to Sierra Blanca, last-mile facilities serving El Paso and the Mesilla Valley, and a handful of cross-border bonded warehouses near the Bridge of the Americas. Most are in the 80,000 to 220,000 square foot range, tilt-up panel, conditioned to 65 degrees rather than full HVAC.

The economics work because the labor pool is local, the land cost is still meaningfully cheaper than Phoenix or San Antonio, and the tax incentives in some El Paso enterprise zones tip the math in favor of building here over building west.

Medical office

The single largest dollar segment by total contract value going into Q3. The University Medical Center expansion plus several free-standing emergency departments in Northeast El Paso and Horizon City are pulling the cycle. Most projects are turn-key, owner-builder partnerships rather than developer-driven spec.

The construction is technical: medical gas, lead-shielded radiology rooms, oncology suites with specific ventilation. Owners want contractors who have done it before. The pool of qualified GCs in the Borderplex for this work is small, which keeps margins healthy.

Retail tenant improvements

Mostly recovery work after the 2024 slowdown. We are seeing a wave of TI projects on second-generation restaurant space, regional pharmacy chains expanding into the Eastside, and a steady drumbeat of quick-service restaurant fit-outs along Lee Trevino and Joe Battle.

Ground-up retail is rare. The fundamentals have not justified speculative retail in our market for two years. What is moving is brand-driven repositioning of existing boxes.

Hospitality

Selective. The El Paso International Airport corridor has two new limited-service hotels under construction and one in late-stage entitlement. Anthony is seeing a similar small wave tied to I-10 traffic. The Las Cruces market is quieter; the existing inventory absorbed the 2023 demand bump and new construction has slowed.

Hospitality is the segment where lender appetite matters most. The deals that are moving are franchisor-backed with strong PIP discipline. Independent boutique hospitality is still mostly idea-stage in our market.

Office

Essentially flat. The Borderplex office market has not had a true ground-up tower since 2019, and the demand signals do not justify one. What is moving is selective TI in existing class A space, primarily for professional services firms expanding El Paso operations to take advantage of the labor cost difference versus their home markets.

Public sector

Schools, libraries, courthouses, utility substations. The bond election cycles in El Paso, Las Cruces, Socorro, Ysleta, and Canutillo are in various stages of funding and design. We expect ground-breaking on most of the 2024 bond-funded school projects to happen in Q3 and Q4 of this year.

Public work is steady, lower-margin, and rewards contractors with strong bond capacity and a documented track record on similar work. The pool of qualified Borderplex GCs is wider here than in medical office but narrower than in retail.

The Permian read

The Odessa-Midland market has shifted from operator-funded private work to public-sector and utility work. School expansions, courthouse renovations, and SPP-funded transmission infrastructure are the active categories. Margins are tighter than the 2022 oil cycle. Volume is steadier.

The window for higher-margin private work is opening again as rig counts stabilize. We expect the next 12 months to be the strongest stretch for selective private commercial in the Permian since 2022.

What this means for owners and developers

If you have a project in design right now and are wondering whether to push it into 2027 or move it into Q3 or Q4 of this year, the labor inflation reality argues for moving sooner. Material is stable; labor is not. Every quarter you delay adds 2 to 3 percent to your labor scope.

If you have a project bidding in the next 90 days, the contractor pool is fully engaged but not yet at capacity. Quality contractors will still bid serious work, but the responsiveness on RFIs and the willingness to hold a price for 30 days will get worse through summer.

Send us what you are working on. We will tell you honestly whether your project is in our wheelhouse and where the market is pricing it.